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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Republican Panic????

Team -

I wanted to share a memo from our Director of Strategy, Sarah Simmons.
After naming his running-mate, Senator Joe Biden, our campaign believes
Senator Obama will receive a bump in polling numbers after this week's
Democratic Convention in Denver.

Senator Obama's bump in the polls means we need to re-double our efforts
this week as we head into our own Convention starting September 1st.
We're focused on electing the man we all know is ready to lead, a man
who puts his country before all else, John McCain. That's why I'm asking
you to make an immediate donation to our campaign
so we
have the financial resources necessary heading into our Convention next
week. Your generous support is critical as we're quickly approaching our
August 31st deadline- the last day to accept your primary donations.

As of September 1st, we'll be limited in the amount of money we can
spend to elect John McCain. Senator Obama broke his promise to accept
federal funds and will be able to spend whatever he wants to defeat us.
Any amount you can give today
- up
to the legal limit of $2,300 will go a long way in helping us reach our
financial goals by the end of the month.

Please take a few minutes to read Sarah's memo and if you can, make a
contribution to our campaign.
always, I thank you for your time and support.

Many Thanks-

Rick Davis
Campaign Manager
John McCain 2008

*From: *Simmons, Sarah
*Sent:* Friday, August 22, 2008 7:32 AM
*To: *All Staff
*CC: *Rick Davis
*Subject:* Strategy Memo: Obama's Convention Bounce

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Sarah Simmons, Director of Strategy
RE: Obama's Convention Bounce
DATE: August 22, 2008

Monday marks the beginning of the Democratic National Convention in
Denver. A combination of factors makes this particular convention
historic on many levels. Democrats have just completed an incredibly
compelling primary cycle that has both energized and divided the
Democratic Party. Because of the unique nature of the Democratic
primary, we believe Obama will receive a significant bump from his

This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton's Democratic convention in 1992: A
historic 16-point bump. Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill
Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history. Bill Clinton
was a new candidate on t he national scene; he was running in a "change"
oriented election cycle and the economy was voters' top issue -- a
dynamic he was able to capitalize on. He received a 16-point bump coming
out of his convention. Obama is also a "new" candidate in a
change-oriented environment. And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the
convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the

Obama will ride his VP bump. In addition to Obama taking advantage of
the political environment, he will announce his Vice Presidential
candidate late this week. This announcement typically gives a candidate
a 5-point temporary bump that dissipates. However, Obama's timing allows
him to maximize his Vice Presidential bump and sustain press attention
for the course of the week. He will ride the wave of an announcement
from late this week (announcement expected by Saturday) through his
speech on Thursday. This means that whatever bump he gains from the
announcement has the potential to be lasting.

Obama will correct his underperformance with Hillary Clinton's primary
voters and emerge with a much more cohesive base. This convention gives
Obama a platform to unite his base. There continues to be a divide in
the Democratic base: Between 10-15% of Democrats are voting for McCain
or sitting on the fence. In target states, that number is even higher,
between 15-20% in many surveys. The Obama campaign knows that winning or
losing in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania depends on Obama's
ability to bring these voters home. If his convention successfully
showcases Hillary Clinton and heals the wounds from the primary, he will
move large groups of voters in those key places.

Obama's stadium address on Thursday -- the 45th anniversary of Rev.
Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have A Dream" speech -- will result in
effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a
great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises
and remark on his historic address and Obama's place in history. For
example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the
historic nature of the addresses - a week before Obama's speech. This
coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.

We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is
reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in
this political environment.


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